Today I am going to attempt to sort out this federal Conservative leadership race that is going on.
The key word is “attempt.” The fact of the matter is that trying to get a handle on who’s winning or losing this race is really, really hard.
The main reason for that is the number of candidates. There are 14 people officially registered to run for the Conservative party leadership as of this writing. This situation, my friends, is ridiculous.
Usually I would have an idea by now of how a leadership race is going, but that isn't the case here. The polls are totally unreliable, and tallies of fundraising and endorsements are also out of whack, especially since Kevin O’Leary announced his candidacy so late.
I think we’ll have a better idea once numbers come in for membership sales. The campaigns like to go out and sell party memberships to people to vote in the leadership race. Those numbers will be the best measure of who might be ahead.
At the moment, about seven people still look to be legitimate contenders in this race and they are, in no particular order, Maxime Bernier, Kellie Leitch, Andrew Scheer, Michael Chong, Erin O’Toole, Lisa Raitt, and last but not least, Kevin O’Leary.
If you base it on the polls and the recent hype, O’Leary is the frontrunner. The question is whether it will stay that way until voting day. He is the most well-known of the leadership candidates, based on numerous television appearances on shows like Dragon’s Den and Shark Tank.
He is certainly getting attention from these Donald Trump-obsessed media people who think O’Leary is another Trump. They point to O’Leary’s business background and reality TV appearances, and of course his most obvious similarity to Trump: his big mouth.
Yet it’s not an entirely fair comparison because O’Leary isn’t interested in the immigrant-bashing, seal-the-borders rhetoric that Trump is famous for. From what little I’ve heard from him, O’Leary sounds more like a pro-business moderate.
The more relevant comparison might actually be to Brian Mulroney – another Irishman with the gift of gab who also entered politics directly from the business world, and who himself was a pro-business moderate.
The problem for O’Leary is similar to what dogged Mulroney when he ran: people aren’t clear on what O’Leary stands for. Some say he’s another Trump. Others say he’s a closet Liberal. And so on.
The main thing O’Leary must overcome is his late start. He’s missed the early debates and must play catch-up in fundraising, organizing, policy development, and so on. He could use a crash course in French as well. But on name recognition, he’s so far ahead that it is a joke.
That is O’Leary’s main advantage. He is the big celebrity of this race.
If you measure the race on fundraising alone, you might say Maxime Bernier is the frontrunner.
He has led the rest of the field consistently over the last few months, and has picked up endorsements and decent poll numbers as well. One thing that sets Bernier apart is you absolutely know what he stands for. He is the “libertarian” of this race, calling for an end to supply management and a rollback of all kinds of regulations.
This has also earned him a reputation, too, as “Mad Max.” Whether his positions are palatable to the social conservatives or even the Red Tories of the party is a question still to be answered.
If you are evaluating strength based on endorsements, then you’d say Regina-Qu’Appelle MP Andrew Scheer is the frontrunner.
Scheer has a huge lead in endorsements from MPs, Senators, and other elected people, including from politicians around here. The names listed include MP Gerry Ritz, Battlefords MLA Herb Cox, Cut Knife-Turtleford MLA Larry Doke – all the local right-leaning politicians.
Scheer is closer to being a true-blue Harper Conservative in policy, and clearly has support in western Canada. But broadening his base and name recognition with grassroots supporters beyond the West is his biggest challenge in this race.
Facing a similar challenge is Michael Chong, who’s seen as a moderate, progressive voice in the party. He’s likely to emerge with his stature in the party enhanced, no matter what happens.
His obstacle, however, is his plan for a BC-style carbon tax, a proposal landing with a thud among Tories in this part of the country. Chong can count on support out East; it’s western Canada that will be a challenge.
Then there is Kellie Leitch, who until recently was the best-organized, most-talked-about candidate in the race.
She has certainly run a high-visibility campaign. Her banner-ads have popped up on websites everywhere, urging people to “click here” if you want to “dismantle the CBC” or have “immigrants screened for anti-Canadian values”.
Leitch’s positions have prompted comparisons to Trump, and for good reason. It is obvious Leitch is deliberately emulating his populism in her messaging, with talk of the “elites” and the like. She’s the real Trump of this race, far more than O’Leary.
But her campaign is starting to sink.
Bernier has pulled ahead in fundraising, and media attention is wearing off with O’Leary in the race. She’s trailing in endorsements, her campaign manager, Nick Kouvalis, has departed, and rumours abound of organized “anyone-but-Leitch” efforts by people joining the party just to vote against her.
Leitch’s shock-value campaign seems to be catching up with her. She needs to hit the reset button, and soon.
Of the rest, Erin O’Toole and Lisa Raitt seem in the best position to draw in second and third-choice votes, if either of them can somehow get a showing of no worse than fourth place on the first ballot.
O’Toole, in particular, is flying right under the radar. But he has plenty of major endorsements, running second to Scheer at last report, and could be viable as “everyone’s second choice” similar to what happened when Joe Clark took the PC leadership in 1976.
As for Raitt, she's been going all-out to establish herself as leader of the “stop-Leitch-and-O’Leary” forces in this race.
Earlier this year, her campaign launched separate websites targeting Leitch and O’Leary. Raitt has gotten attention lately by simply opposing and criticizing these two candidates who have hogged the spotlight.
The next three months are going to be interesting to see exactly how this race shakes out. It’s still anyone’s game at this point.
