This weekend is surely one to watch for political junkies across Canada, as the Conservatives finally get down to the business of selecting their next federal leader.
It has certainly been a long and drawn out process to get to this point. What has been notable about it all is that it has been such a wide open race, with so many candidates in the field.
Never in Canadian history have there been so many candidates running for the leadership of any party. A total of 13 candidates are still officially in the race going into this weekend, and that total does not include the three official candidates who have dropped out (one of whom, Kevin O’Leary, is still on the ballot), or the few others who said they were running but didn’t get officially registered.
Some will say it has not been the most compelling race ever, and there are reasons for that. The main one is what’s gone on in Alberta of late.
The Alberta PCs were consumed with their own high-profile leadership race at the same time that the federal race has been going on. Plenty of Tories in Alberta were working hard to get former federal MP Jason Kenney elected as leader, with Kenney running on a somewhat contentious pledge to try and unite both the PCs and the Wildrose parties into a single alternative to the governing NDP.
Last week, both Kenney and Wildrose leader Brian Jean announced plans to form a single entity, the “United Conservative Party.” Members now have to approve that deal.
The bottom line is the main focus of Tories in Alberta right now has been on the provincial scene, not so much the federal one. This PC-Wildrose merger business has stolen much of the thunder from federal Conservatives in that province.
The other thing that overshadowed this whole race has been what has gone on down in the United States, with the maniacal Donald Trump winning the White House.
Since his shocking victory in November, all the media attention in Canada that should have gone to the Tories has gone to Trump instead. He has given the press no shortage of things to cover, with his outrageous rants directed at the “fake news” media.
The Tories’ leadership battle looks dull and boring compared to this guy.
Now, people have tried to find a “Trump” angle to this Conservative race by focusing on the campaigns of Kellie Leitch and her “Canadian values” test of potential immigrants, as well as “reality TV star” Kevin O’Leary. The thinking was that these two might lead the way in a “populist uprising” in the party.
The problem is we’re still waiting for this “populist uprising” to transpire. Leitch’s campaign went straight downhill from the moment O’Leary entered the race. As for O’Leary himself, the high point of his campaign was the day he entered.
Yes, O’Leary had the name recognition, but Conservatives simply never warmed up to him as a candidate. O’Leary himself looked disinterested, skipping any number of all-candidates debates.
Not long ago, O’Leary threw in the towel and endorsed Maxime Bernier for the leadership. Afterwards, the story in the National Post from John Ivison ran under the headline: “Kevin O’Leary is out? Mr. Wonderful was barely in.”
As we get closer to Saturday and the counting of the ballots, we now have a clearer sense of where things stand in the race. No doubt about it, Maxime Bernier is the clear front runner now that O’Leary is out of the way. That’s what the fundraising is telling us, and more importantly, so is the polling.
The polling is pointing to first-ballot strength for Bernier to roughly be somewhere in the 30 per cent range. The difficulty is in knowing how many signed-up members of the party bothered to send in their votes.
My guess is that Bernier should have one of the better get-out-the-vote organizations of all the campaigns. If he can get over 30 per cent, he’ll be in great shape to pick up second-and-third-choice votes as the count goes on. But watch out if Bernier is way under 30 per cent, because he could be caught in that scenario.
Ultimately, it looks like it will come down to a battle between Bernier and… somebody else. A good portion of the balloting is going to be spent determining which, or whether, a candidate emerges to face him in a final ballot showdown.
Right now, I believe Saskatchewan’s Andrew Scheer is probably in second place, based on the polling. Also, the thinking is that the Erin O’Toole campaign may now have risen up to third place.
The question is, how close are Scheer and O’Toole going to be on the first ballot? If O’Toole’s vote total on the first ballot is anywhere close to where Scheer is, or even ahead of where Scheer is, then Scheer could be in trouble.
Also keep an eye on how many votes the social conservatives in the race at getting: folks like Pierre Lemieux and Brad Trost. If they get a significant chunk of votes, that could be good news for Scheer in the later ballots, because a lot of social conservatives are likely to go to Scheer.
The other top tier candidates include Michael Chong, Lisa Raitt and Kellie Leitch, but I think these three all have a tough hill to climb in terms of second and third choice support. Leitch in particular was thrown a lifeline when O’Leary dropped out; a lot of his supporters will probably vote for her now, if they don’t vote for Bernier.
Summing it up, Bernier is the man to beat. Getting over the finish line, though, is likely going to take a long time.
What I expect to see Saturday is the longest leadership convention in Canadian history, with a record likely to be set for the most rounds of balloting ever recorded. The current record at the federal level is five ballots, from the 1967 PC convention that elected Robert Stanfield. This Conservative count is likely to go way longer than that, simply based on the number of candidates.
Moreover, they are going to be counting votes from ridings all over Canada, and a lot of them.
You political junkies might want to head to the local supermarket and stock up on popcorn and snack items, in time for a big weekend watching leadership convention coverage on TV.
Make sure you’ll have plenty of coffee on hand, too, because you’ll need it Saturday while waiting for the final results.
