Northern Saskatchewan has seen a lot of precipitation since April. High water flows and lake levels across the Churchill River and Lower Saskatchewan River basins has threatened property and infrastructure across the region.
The Water Security Agency reports light at the end of the tunnel as the rainy weather is expected to subside this week. “We’re hoping that we’ve seen the worst and that things decline now,” agency spokesperson Patrick Boyle told Canada’s National Observer on Wednesday.
“The Churchill basin is still above where it would be in a normal year, but things are levelling off,” Boyle said.
Rainfall over the Aug. 8 weekend led to a drastic rise in flows and water levels, but have since stabilized or are declining.
Flows and water levels in the Lower Churchill River, including Reindeer River and Churchill River near Sandy Bay, have all exceeded historical highs.
“When you get flooding like that, anywhere around the water it gets impacted. There’s property that would have been impacted. Anything that was around the rivers, streams or systems,” Boyle said.
Boyle said the two areas most affected this year are Sandy Bay and Lac La Ronge.
The La Ronge Dam, upstream from the northern community of Stanley Mission, went from a hazardous condition to a potential dam failure situation as water levels continued to rise in the Churchill basin.
“We keep monitoring the dam daily and we do daily inspections of the dam. A crew up there will be on top of this for a while,” Boyle said.
“When you get flooding like that, anywhere around the water it gets impacted." Patrick Boyle.
“It went up to the top of what would be the original dam. It was about to start hitting the sandbags, and now we think it’s levelling off,” Boyle said.
“Lac La Ronge peaked above its 2011 level and then Sandy Bay broke its 2005 record.”
In a typical year, flows in the area are around 700 cubic metres per second. The peak this year around Sandy Bay was 2,420 -- 340 per cent higher than what's seen in a normal year.
Agency spokesperson Ron Podbielski told Canada’s National Observer in late July that changes in weather patterns and more extreme conditions caused by climate change will mean the province must adapt to a new normal.
“We’re seeing that climate variability that we’ve acknowledged in the province is happening in terms of both drought and flood,” Podbielski said.
The good news is that conditions have been warm and dry over the past few days, allowing for water to evaporate.
“It’s all rainfall-dependent, so that’s our caveat. If you get some more rainfall events and inflows, then it will be a different scenario and we’ll have to react,” Boyle said.
The agency says high river and lake levels can be expected for the rest of summer and, in some cases, such as the mainstem of the Churchill River, into the fall and winter.
“In certain areas it was well above normal and depending on where you are, record-breaking rainfall, as we saw in Sandy Bay and Lac La Ronge" Boyle said.
He said that water levels will be high going into the fall, “but I think we’re coming out at the end of this event… It was a pretty significant event as far as flooding goes.”
The agency reports water levels at Sandy Bay peaked on Aug. 4 and are now down below the 2005 peak. Flows and levels are expected to remain relatively steady for the next week.
The agency reduced the Whitesand Dam outflow on the Reindeer River on Wednesday and said the move will help lower water levels further at Sandy Bay by the middle of next week.
Meeting Lake’s outlet is blocked with thick vegetation and the water agency will put berms around the lake.
The agency doesn’t have any current information for Deschambault or Amisk lakes. With the Sturgeon Weir River at Leaf Rapids appearing to be at its peak, the agency says Deschambault Lake has likely peaked and a peak at Amisk Lake can be expected before the end of the month.
Like Jan Lake, Deschambault and Amisk lakes are expected to peak at slightly above 2017 levels, unless there is more rainfall.
Cumberland Lake has peaked and is receding. The agency's 10-day forecast for the Saskatchewan river system can be found here.
