The fallout of the decline in oil prices, its revenue to the province, and the jobs it provides, can be seen crystallizing in the case of one Saskatchewan family.
June 22 the StarPhoenix wrote about how one family is being affected by cuts in the educational system. Entitled “‘Completely unacceptable’: parents get political over division cuts,” it highlights how a $3 million shortfall in its budget has caused the Prairie Spirit School Division to cut 74 staff positions for the upcoming school year.
Among those affected is Katelyn Kopp, 17, who relies heavily on education assistants to help her with her education while overcoming “a severe developmental delay and speech apraxia.” Katelyn’s mother, Trina Miller, is fighting to ensure education assistants are funded. She wants to meet with the education minister on the matter.
There's an interesting correlation here between the Miller family and the Saskatchewan economy. I know them because Katelyn’s older brother, Jordan Ethier, used to be an air cadet in the Battlefords squadron while I was an instructor. Jordan is quite possibly one of the brightest young men I ever met, but he’s no longer that young. He used to work on drilling rigs (finding work on eight different rigs over the years) while attending university. The bookworm history major as a rig hand was something so unique it made the TV news a few years ago. He still works rigs in the summer while completing his second degree, in secondary education, but there’s little rig work to be found these days.
Drilling today is one-third of 2014 — 21 rigs vs 69 rigs for the same week. The decline in oil revenue is well over a billion dollars, per year, to the province. The strong teachers' union demanded a raise, despite the huge decline in revenue for the province. Something had to give. So the teachers got their raise, but the school divisions were not fully funded for it. The divisions had to find the money somewhere, so now they are laying off EAs in droves. It's almost a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. And thus Jordan's sister may now be deprived of the assistance she needs.
Since health care is the ultimate sacred cow in Saskatchewan (and Canadian) politics, and it is, by far, the largest line item on the budget expenses, it won't be touched. Thus, all other areas of spending, such as education, are disproportionately affected.
The total expenditure for education in the 2016-17 budget is $2.167 billion.
On the revenue side, oil is expected to bring in $509.7 million this year. In the 2013-14 budget it was $1.414 billion, more than the entire provincial sales tax of $1.401 billion budgeted for that year.
Put another way, just a few years ago, oil paid for almost the entire operating (non-capital) expense line of the education ministry from the provincial perspective (not local land taxes). That money has largely vanished. If nothing else in government is cut, except education, over half the education budget would disappear.
The simple answer as to why Katelyn's EA is being cut is the two-year-long crash in oil prices. This is just one place the province is choosing to make those hard choices. There will be a lot more in the coming year, especially since Premier Brad Wall is promising an balanced budget in the near future.
If health care can’t be cut, if teachers get raises, all those lower on the totem pole will feel the axe. Where do you think libraries find themselves on that totem pole?
The paradox in this family is if Jordan does find work as a teacher upon completing his degree, he will benefit from the raise given, but not funded — the same raise that may cause the loss of funding for the education assistant his sister needs. If oil were to pick up to previous levels, the funding for all the above would not be an issue, and Jordan could likely spend his summers working as a motorhand on a drilling rig.
The Miller family is just one seeing the profound impacts of the oil decline. There are others.
— Brian Zinchuk is editor of Pipeline News. He can be reached at brian.zinchuk@sasktel.net.
